{"id":3056,"date":"2022-04-14T11:05:44","date_gmt":"2022-04-14T09:05:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gradjanskipreokret.rs\/?p=3056"},"modified":"2022-04-14T11:05:47","modified_gmt":"2022-04-14T09:05:47","slug":"blickrig-nije-uspeo-sta-je-sledece","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gradjanskipreokret.rs\/index.php\/2022\/04\/14\/blickrig-nije-uspeo-sta-je-sledece\/","title":{"rendered":"Blickrig nije uspeo. \u0160ta je slede\u0107e?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Pi\u0161e: Boris Kagarlicki (\u0411\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0441 \u041a\u0430\u0433\u0430\u0440\u043b\u0438\u0446\u043a\u0438\u0439<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specijalnu operaciju u Ukrajini Putin i njegovo okru\u017eenje osmislili su kao doga\u0111aj koji mo\u017ee da preokrene politi\u010dku situaciju. Stratege Kremlja najmanje je zanimala sudbina ljudi u Lugansku i Donjecku. Pa \u010dak i budu\u0107nost Ukrajine. U istorijskom \u0107orsokaku, bez na\u010dina da o\u017eive privredu, da se izbore sa teretom rastu\u0107ih problema i podignu rejting koji se kotrlja u ambis, nisu na\u0161li ni\u0161ta bolje nego da poku\u0161aju da re\u0161e sva pitanja odjednom uz pomo\u0107 malog i pobedni\u010dkog rata. Klasi\u010dna gre\u0161ka koju prave sve vlade kada nisu spremne da krenu u hitne i objektivno neizbe\u017ene reforme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Izbijanje neprijateljstava je bio fatalan korak koji je nepovratno promenio situaciju, ali ne na na\u010din na koji je Kremlj o\u010dekivao. Bila je to kocka koja je mogla da funkcioni\u0161e samo da je Ukrajina pora\u017eena za 96 sati, na \u0161ta su, po svemu sude\u0107i, ra\u010dunali. To \u0161to Ukrajina vi\u0161e nije ista kao pre osam godina, niko nije pomislio. O\u010digledno nije postojao plan B. Nisu se pripremali za dugotrajnu oru\u017eanu borbu na neprijateljskoj teritoriji.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u010cak i da je do\u0161lo do okupacije susedne dr\u017eave, tehni\u010dki bi to bilo nemogu\u0107e zavr\u0161iti. U Nema\u010dkoj, na kraju Drugog svetskog rata, savezni\u010dke i sovjetske snage su bile otprilike 90 vojnika na 1.000 lokalnih stanovnika. U slu\u010daju Ukrajine, ruskih grupa nema vi\u0161e od 4 vojnika na 1.000 lokalnih stanovnika. Da bi se efektivno okupirala Ukrajina, grupisanje se mora pove\u0107ati najmanje 20 puta! Ruska vojska nema takve snage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Blickrig je propao, a Rusija se na\u0161la u stanju te\u0161ke konfrontacije ne samo sa ujedinjenim Zapadom, ve\u0107 prakti\u010dno sa celim svetom. \u010cak ni Kina, \u010dijoj pomo\u0107i se neko, mo\u017eda, naivno nadao, ne pokazuje ni najmanju snishodljivost, cini\u010dno profitiraju\u0107i na na\u0161im te\u0161ko\u0107ama.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zna\u010dajno je da su neprijateljstva, zapo\u010deta pod izgovorom potrebe da se NATO udalji od na\u0161ih granica, ve\u0107 dovela do suprotnog rezultata: dve na\u0161e susedne zemlje \u2013 \u0160vedska i Finska \u2013 odlu\u010dile su da napuste svoj neutralni status. \u0160tavi\u0161e, u Finskoj se to dogodilo na zahtev naroda. Sada NATO mo\u017ee, po \u017eelji, da rasporedi rakete nekoliko desetina kilometara od Sankt Peterburga. U tehni\u010dkom smislu, svi zahtevi u vezi sa neutralno\u0161\u0107u Ukrajine gube svaki smisao. NATO je ve\u0107 postao bli\u017ei Rusiji nego \u0161to bi bio \u010dak i da joj se Kijev pridru\u017eio. Od finske granice do Sankt Peterburga rastojanje je nekoliko puta manje nego od Harkova do Moskve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I napominjemo da se u slu\u010daju Ukrajine, pre 24. februara, radilo o \u201epotencijalnoj mogu\u0107nosti\u201c ulaska zemlje u Severnoatlantsku alijansu, mogu\u0107nosti kojoj bi se jo\u0161 uvek moglo suprotstaviti diplomatskim i politi\u010dkim merama. U slu\u010daju Finske i \u0160vedske, to je, na pozadini neprijateljstava u Ukrajini, ve\u0107 postala \u010dinjenica. Obe zemlje, pa\u017eljivo \u010duvaju\u0107i svoj neutralni status decenijama, odlu\u010dile su da ga napuste nakon udara na Ukrajinu. Dostojan \u201eme\u0111urezultat\u201c specijalne operacije!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sve ovo ukazuje kako na potpuni krah spoljne politike, tako i na neuspeh ekonomskog kursa koji je vo\u0111en u poslednjih 30 godina. Sada beremo plodove razvoja finansijske i sirovinske privrede, deindustrijalizacije i privatizacije. \u010cak ni sektor odbrane ne mo\u017ee stabilno da radi bez uvoznih komponenti. Kremljovski propagandisti mogu da nas te\u0161e pri\u010dama da je sve najbolje, da \u0107emo sada po\u010deti da razvijamo industriju, podr\u017eavamo sopstvene tehnologije i ja\u010damo doma\u0107e tr\u017ei\u0161te (isto je obe\u0107ano posle prve runde sankcija). Sve ovo mo\u017ee i mora da se uradi. Ali evo problema: da bi se postigao zna\u010dajan uspeh, bi\u0107e potrebno 10-15 godina, ali \u0161to je najva\u017enije, to mo\u017ee postati stvarnost samo u potpuno druga\u010dijem dru\u0161tvenom i politi\u010dkom sistemu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Obim neophodnih reformi po najkonzervativnijem scenariju ne bi trebalo da bude ni\u0161ta manji od onoga \u0161to je preduzeto u Rusiji posle poraza u Krimskom ratu. Kratkoro\u010dno gledano, odnos snaga je takav da na\u0161a vlast nema \u0161anse za uspeh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kombinacija tehnolo\u0161ke zaostalosti sa ekonomskom zavisno\u0161\u0107u negira \u010dak i superiornost ruskih oru\u017eanih snaga nad njihovim ukrajinskim protivnicima. Oni mogu da ra\u010dunaju na gotovo neograni\u010dene resurse svih zemalja sveta sa kojima je tim Lavrova, zahvaljuju\u0107i izuzetnim diplomatskim talentima, uspeo da posva\u0111a Rusiju.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Postoje samo dve opcije za izlazak iz ove situacije: pregovarati ili dogovoriti nuklearnu apokalipsu. Pa \u010dak i u ovom slu\u010daju, ako neki deo \u010dove\u010danstva ima \u0161anse da pre\u017eivi, onda to ne va\u017ei za Ruse. Ne\u0107e svi umreti. Avantura je propala. I \u0161to se to pre prepozna, to \u0107e njena cena biti ni\u017ea. Produ\u017eenje sukoba samo pove\u0107ava \u0161tetu koju \u0107e Rusija pretrpeti. Odr\u017eavanje vlasti u njenom trenutnom ludilu nije patriotizam, ve\u0107 nacionalna izdaja.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Veli\u010dina se mora potvrditi ne propagandnim hvalisanjem, ve\u0107 konstruktivnim delima, ne hala\u0161kim izjavama i pretnjama, ve\u0107 dru\u0161tvenim i ekonomskim dostignu\u0107ima. Na\u0161a zemlja je vra\u0107ala status velike sile posle poraza u Krimskom ratu i posle katastrofalnih neuspeha Prvog svetskog rata. Ali da bi se to uradilo, bilo je neophodno promeniti rukovodstvo i radikalno promeniti sistem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Autor je sociolog i direktor Instituta za globalizaciju i dru\u0161tvene pokrete iz Moskve<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adaptirao na srpski jezik: Miroslav Samard\u017ei\u0107, prevod je neznatno skra\u0107en.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u010clanak je objavljen 3.3.2022, na adresi:
https:\/\/rabkor.ru\/columns\/editorial-columns\/2022\/03\/03\/blitzkrieg_failed_whats_next\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pi\u0161e: Boris Kagarlicki (\u0411\u043e\u0440\u0438\u0441 \u041a\u0430\u0433\u0430\u0440\u043b\u0438\u0446\u043a\u0438\u0439) Specijalnu operaciju u Ukrajini Putin i njegovo okru\u017eenje osmislili su kao doga\u0111aj koji mo\u017ee da<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3057,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,11,12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3056","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-arhiva","category-misljenja","category-prenosimo"],"yoast_head":"\nBlickrig nije uspeo. \u0160ta je slede\u0107e? - Gra\u0111anski preokret<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/gradjanskipreokret.rs\/index.php\/2022\/04\/14\/blickrig-nije-uspeo-sta-je-sledece\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Blickrig nije uspeo. \u0160ta je slede\u0107e? 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